But European leaders had sworn it would not happen. Yet one of the last taboos of the euro zone fell, Monday, September 12. In an interview with the newspaper Die Welt, the German Minister of Economy Philipp Rösler said that "to stabilize the euro, there should be more short-term no-think of some options," including that of an "orderly insolvency." In other words, Greece may soon have to be in bankruptcy to restructure its debt. While Brussels has again denied that opportunity on the day after the minister's statements. But for how long? It is rumored already in Berlin that it could be a matter of weeks or even days.
In Germany, the skepticism that greeted the announcement of the various rescue plans is being transformed into hostility. On 9 September, a poll for ZDF German respondents revealed that three in four said they were opposed to the expansion of German guarantees for indebted countries in the euro area, from € 123 to € 211 billion, or 27% the total amount. In other words, a German withdrawal would deprive the whole euro area's main lifeguard.
The German political class itself does not hide his impatience and the voices are becoming more and more to demand an end to the indulgence vis-à-vis Athens. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Greece should not receive additional aid until it had demonstrated its determination to undertake a cost reduction, while calling on his countrymen to be patient. However, "last place, we can not exclude that Greece should leave the euro area," said Christian Lindner, general secretary of the FDP, the CDU party ally of Angela Merkel.
Hans-Werner Sinn, an economist and president of the influential Institute for Economic think tank, estimated September 12, during a press conference, a Greek bankruptcy would be a "liberation" for the country. The economist also said that "the only way for Greece is to devalue at least 20% to 30%" its currency, he said. "This requires leaving the euro, it would be less severe scenario." But that's up to Greece alone.
Greek two scenarios under consideration in Germany
This feeling of exasperation in Germany follows a series of events that sent European stock markets in the carpet since the mid-summer. Finland announced that it has entered into an agreement with Greece providing additional safeguards parallel to the second aid package of € 158.6 billion agreed by the countries of the euro area on July 21. The announcement likely to wobble the rescue process has badly shaken investor markets.
In August, Italy came to turn in the storm and had to announce an austerity plan in a hurry to avoid the risk of default. A default narrowly avoided by the intervention of the European Central Bank has committed to lend money to the government of Silvio Berlusconi in exchange for drastic budget cuts. Added to that of Greece, that bankruptcy would be unsustainable for additional European monetary union.
Then, in early September, an independent control of the budget found that the dynamics of the Greek debt was now "out of control." Representatives from the troika (EU, IMF, ECB), who led an inspection of the Greek government accounts, suspended for ten days their mission in Athens after finding that the commitments of budget cuts made by Greece had not been held .
Faced with such an accumulation of signs, the German Finance Ministry was already working on the assumption of a Greek bankruptcy, according to Der Spiegel, which says it has developed two scenarios: 1. Greece would keep the euro, 2. it would reintroduce the drachma. Information that has not denied a spokesman for the minister acknowledged that his services "were concerned about potential developments" in this country, AFP reported.
Under pressure, the Greek government announced on 11 September the introduction of a new property tax which should earn around € 2 billion according to Prime Minister George Papandreou. This tax should be accompanied by an accelerated privatization of state property in order to plug the holes in the budget of the Greek administration. But obviously, the trust no longer reigns and this ad has received a frosty reception in Germany.
"Words are one thing, action is another," said Guido Westerwelle, German Minister of Foreign Affairs at a joint press conference with his Finnish counterpart on September 6. Which may include: passing a law is not enough, it is still necessary to implement it. If not, bankruptcy or exit, it will choose.
